Xi Jinping out by June 30?

"Xi Jinping out by June 30?" is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether China’s General Secretary, Xi Jinping, will be removed from power at any point between the market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to Yes if Xi resigns, is dismissed, detained, disqualified, or otherwise loses his position or is unable to carry out his duties as General Secretary within that timeframe. The market relies on a consensus of credible reporting to determine the outcome.

This event matters because it tracks potential leadership stability at the top of the Chinese Communist Party, a subject with broad implications for global geopolitics, markets, and international policy analysis. As of the latest market data, traders assign roughly an 85% probability to the Yes outcome, indicating strong market sentiment that Xi will be out before the deadline. For prediction market participants, the key event prediction is whether any qualifying removal occurs before the June 30 cutoff.