Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Iran will agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified deadline at 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. Traders are forecasting a binary outcome: “Yes” if both governments formally adopt or publicly confirm a qualifying agreement that clearly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis, and “No” otherwise. Temporary ceasefires, short extensions, or statements of negotiation progress do not meet the market’s resolution standard.

This event matters because any durable diplomatic breakthrough between Israel and Iran would have significant implications for regional security, including related tensions involving Lebanon, Hezbollah, and broader Iran ceasefire dynamics. The prediction market is focused on official government statements from Israel and Iran, though credible reporting may also inform resolution. Current market probability is listed at 0%, indicating no priced expectation is available in the data rather than a guaranteed outcome. For users tracking geopolitical forecast and event prediction signals, this market reflects sentiment around whether a permanent peace settlement is realistically achievable before the deadline.