Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to transfer custody of any portion of its enriched uranium stockpile outside Iran by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because any such pledge would signal a major shift in U.S. x Iran nuclear diplomacy and broader Middle East security negotiations.

For this market to resolve to Yes, Iran must make a public agreement or pledge before the deadline, whether unilaterally or as part of a deal with the U.S. or Israel. The forecast does not require a finalized peace agreement, but it does require more than a promise to merely limit enrichment levels. Traders are specifically watching for confirmation that the stockpile, or any qualifying portion of it, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the control of an entity outside Iran and its influence.

Current market probability is 0%, indicating extremely low expected odds at this stage, though prediction market sentiment can shift quickly on credible reporting or diplomatic developments. The primary resolution source is consensus credible reporting.