Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if that threshold is met, with resolution based on a consensus of credible sources. It is part of the broader politics and Middle East category, and it draws on major geopolitical factors involving the U.S., Iran, Israel, and the Trump-era security context reflected in the event tags. The forecast matters because any direct U.S.-Iran military action would have significant implications for regional stability, energy markets, and global security. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of a highly sensitive geopolitical scenario, with current market probability at 18.5%, suggesting a relatively low but non-trivial chance of escalation before the deadline. As a live event prediction, sentiment can shift quickly with developments in military strikes, diplomacy, or broader conflict dynamics across the Middle East.