Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...?

Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will commence a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025. The event focuses on a clear forecasted outcome: traders are evaluating the odds that the U.S. will take direct military action rather than simply apply diplomatic or economic pressure. As defined by the market, the result will resolve to Yes only if credible sources indicate an offensive aimed at controlling Venezuelan territory; otherwise it will resolve to No. The market also specifies that territory de facto controlled by either country as of September 6, 2025, is treated as sovereign territory for resolution purposes. Current market probability is 0%, indicating that market sentiment does not expect an invasion at this time, though prediction market odds can change quickly as geopolitical conditions evolve. This event sits at the intersection of world politics, the Trump Presidency tag, and Venezuela-related geopolitical risk, making it relevant to event prediction watchers tracking U.S.-Venezuela tensions.