Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?

Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will still be governing by June 30, 2026, after any qualifying U.S. military action on Iranian soil, airspace, maritime territory, or against Iranian embassies or consulates. The event resolves to Yes only if both conditions are met: the U.S. carries out a formally acknowledged military strike or other use of force, and Iran’s current ruling regime does not collapse, get overthrown, or otherwise cease to exercise sovereign power. The market excludes sanctions, cyberattacks, diplomacy, and ordinary political changes such as elections or leadership succession. It also requires a clear break in continuity, based on credible reporting, for regime change to count. As of the latest market data, traders assign a 97.65% probability to the Yes outcome, indicating strong market sentiment that the regime would survive if the trigger event occurs. The forecast is relevant to Middle East politics, U.S.-Iran relations, and broader geopolitical risk assessment.