Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will cease to govern before June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast asks traders to assess a major regime-change outcome, not routine elections, leadership succession, or limited internal power shifts. For a Yes resolution, credible reporting would need to show that core state structures such as the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, or IRGC authority under clerical rule have been dissolved, replaced, or made unable to exercise sovereign power over most of Iran’s population. The market is therefore tracking a high-stakes event prediction tied to Iran, the Middle East, and broader geopolitical stability. Current market probability is about 2.15%, suggesting traders see regime collapse by the deadline as unlikely, though not impossible. The market’s end date is June 30, 2026, and the resolution will depend on a consensus of credible reporting.