Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Iran ceasefire continues through...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the US-Iranian ceasefire will remain in effect through the listed deadline. The market resolves to Yes if no qualifying US kinetic military action on Iranian soil is officially confirmed by the US government or established by overwhelming credible reporting before the resolution date. A qualifying action is narrowly defined as aerial bombs, drones, or missiles launched by US military forces that impact Iranian territory; other forms of conflict, including artillery, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks, do not count under the rules. The event matters because it tracks the durability of a fragile ceasefire in a high-stakes geopolitical conflict and helps summarize market sentiment around escalation risk. Traders in this prediction market are effectively forecasting the expected outcome based on developments in US-Iran relations and conflict reporting. The market opened on May 20, 2026, and remains open for one additional day after the listed end date to allow time for confirmation. Current market probability is 100%, indicating the market is overwhelmingly pricing in that the ceasefire will continue through the resolution window, though odds can still change if new reporting emerges.