US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?

US x Iran permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal by the specified deadline of 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is narrowly defined: the market resolves “Yes” only if both sides sign or publicly confirm a qualifying agreement that clearly ends military hostilities on a lasting basis. Temporary ceasefires, extensions, or statements of progress do not count.

This event matters because U.S.-Iran relations remain a major driver of geopolitical risk, regional stability, and broader market sentiment. Traders are watching for official statements, treaty language, or other credible confirmation from both governments that a durable agreement has been established. The resolution source prioritizes official information, with credible reporting used as a secondary reference.

Current market probability is 0%, indicating traders do not expect a permanent peace deal before the deadline at this time. As a geopolitical forecast, the market reflects ongoing uncertainty around U.S. x Iran diplomacy, ceasefire dynamics, and the likelihood of a definitive agreement rather than a temporary pause in hostilities.