What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?

"What Iranian demands will Trump agree to by May 31?" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States, under Donald Trump or another authorized representative, will definitively agree to Iran’s continued enrichment of uranium by the May 31, 2026 deadline. The event resolves "Yes" only if the U.S. publicly announces explicit acceptance of Iran’s right to continue enriching uranium, or if that position is formally included in a treaty or deal with Iran. General negotiations, openness, or non-definitive statements do not count. This matters because uranium enrichment remains a central issue in U.S.-Iran relations, sanctions policy, and any broader ceasefire or diplomatic agreement involving the two countries. Traders are currently assigning about an 11.5% probability to a Yes outcome, suggesting the market expects a low chance of formal U.S. agreement before the end date. As a prediction market, the listing reflects current market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around a high-stakes foreign policy decision.