Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?

Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...? is a prediction market on whether Senate Republicans will use a cloture vote to end debate in a way that falls below the usual three-fifths threshold in the U.S. Senate. The market resolves "Yes" if, by October 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, the Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture on any part of the legislative process with fewer than 60 yea votes. Confirmations do not count, since they are part of the Senate’s advice and consent role rather than the legislative process. This event matters because a successful move of this kind would signal a major shift in Senate procedure and could affect how the chamber handles legislation, confirmations, and any government shutdown-related negotiations. The event sits in the Elections category with Trump, Senate, Congress, Politics, and Trump Presidency context, and traders are watching for changes in market sentiment around a possible procedural break. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, indicating no current expectation of a successful nuclear option move, though prediction market odds can change quickly as political conditions evolve.