Trump out as President by June 30?

"Trump out as President by June 30?" is a prediction market in the Elections category that asks whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if Trump resigns, is removed from office, or otherwise is no longer president for any period before the deadline. It also allows a Yes resolution if a resignation or removal is publicly announced before the end date, even if the change takes effect later. Temporary removal or impeachment without removal does not qualify, while a sustained invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 4 would count.

The event matters because it tracks political risk around presidential continuity and executive authority, making it a closely watched election forecast for traders following Trump and broader U.S. politics. Current market probability is about 1.2%, suggesting very low odds of a Yes outcome based on market sentiment. Resolution will rely on a consensus of credible reporting.