Trump out as President by May 31?

Trump out as President by May 31? is an election prediction market asking whether Donald Trump will cease to be President of the United States by May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Trump resigns, is permanently removed from office, or otherwise stops serving as president during the market window. It also counts a sustained invocation of the 25th Amendment, Section 4, but not temporary removal, impeachment without removal, or other short-term events. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.

This market matters because it reflects real-time market sentiment around a high-stakes political outcome involving Trump, Congress, the Vice President, and the Cabinet. Traders are effectively pricing the expected outcome of a rare presidential succession scenario rather than a typical election result. As of the latest data, the market implies about a 5% probability of Trump being out of office by the deadline, suggesting low odds but meaningful attention from prediction market participants. The event began on April 27, 2026 and runs through the end of May 31, making timing central to the forecast and final resolution.