Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on daily ship traffic through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. The forecast asks whether the finalized IMF Portwatch “Arrivals of Ships” data for the Strait of Hormuz will show at least the listed number of transit calls on any day between market creation and June 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships, but only vessels reported by IMF Portwatch count toward resolution.

This event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is central to global oil shipping and broader regional risk assessment, so changes in traffic can reflect shifts in market sentiment around Iran, U.S. policy, and Middle East tensions. The market is currently pricing about a 23% probability of the threshold being reached, suggesting traders see it as possible but not the base case. The event starts on June 1, 2026 and runs through June 30, 2026, with resolution tied to finalized daily data from the official IMF Portwatch source.