Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether any national government, military, or credible reporting confirms a listed country’s warships transited the Strait of Hormuz before the market closes on May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The event matters because the Strait is a critical chokepoint for global oil shipping and a frequent flashpoint in U.S.-Iran and broader regional tensions. In this forecast, a qualifying transit means a military vessel passing through the narrowest part of the waterway between Iran and Oman; activity only in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea does not count. Commercial and civilian ships are excluded.

Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the expected outcome of whether one or more countries will publicly send warships through the strait during the specified window. Current market probability is around 1%, suggesting very low odds of a confirmed transit event. The market’s resolution depends primarily on official government or military confirmation, with broad consensus from credible reporting also accepted.