Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Will Russia invade another country in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Russia will begin a military offensive aimed at taking control of any part of another UN member state’s territory, excluding Ukraine, before December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes only if credible reporting shows Russia has commenced such an action by the deadline; otherwise it resolves to No. Because the definition includes de facto controlled land as sovereign territory, the event focuses on a concrete territorial incursion rather than broader rhetoric or military activity. As of the latest market data, traders assign a probability of about 12.5% to a Yes outcome, suggesting the expected outcome is currently No. The market opened in January 2026 and will remain active through year-end, giving participants time to reassess market sentiment as geopolitical conditions evolve. Relevant entities and themes include Russia, Putin, Armenia, military actions, and broader geopolitical risk, making this a closely watched event prediction for users tracking Russia-related odds and geopolitics forecast markets.