Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia and Ukraine will enter a qualifying ceasefire by the specified deadline and keep it in effect for at least 10 consecutive calendar days. The event focuses on a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement across the main theater of the war, confirmed by official announcement or credible reporting, rather than a limited pause, humanitarian lull, or partial restriction. The market resolves based on a consensus of credible sources, with the result depending on whether a broader truce, peace deal, or ceasefire framework meets the event rules before 11:59 PM EET on the end date, currently set for December 31, 2026. As a geopolitical forecast tied to the Russia-Ukraine war, the market draws attention to developments involving Vladimir Putin, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine, and, indirectly, Donald Trump-related diplomacy or policy expectations. Current market probability is about 4.5%, suggesting traders see a ceasefire as possible but not the expected outcome. That pricing reflects cautious market sentiment around negotiations, battlefield conditions, and the difficulty of sustaining any agreement long enough to satisfy the 10-day threshold.