Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will take full control of Huliaipole in Zaporizhzhya Oblast, Ukraine by the resolution date. The market resolves to Yes only if the entire municipality is shown as Russian-controlled on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, or if equivalent credible reporting confirms control under the market rules. It will also count if Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement, provided actual control is established. The forecast matters because Huliaipole sits within the broader Russia-Ukraine war and is tracked by traders watching frontline shifts, territorial advances, and changing market sentiment. The current market probability is 0%, indicating traders assign no measurable odds to a Yes outcome at present. The event opens on February 6, 2026 and is tied to a February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET deadline for the territory to be captured. As a prediction market event, it reflects event prediction and geopolitical forecast activity rather than a policy or financial recommendation.