Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Israel will begin a large-scale ground operation in Gaza within the specified window. The market resolves to Yes only if Israel initiates an offensive involving more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the operation; smaller raids, special operations, and limited border incursions do not count. The resolution source is a consensus of credible reporting.

This event matters because it tracks a major escalation risk in the Israel-Gaza conflict and reflects trader expectations around military activity in the Middle East. The market opened on October 19, 2025 and is set to run through December 31, 2025, giving participants a defined timeframe to forecast the expected outcome. Current market probability is 0%, suggesting traders see no chance of a qualifying offensive at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as new information emerges. As a geopolitical forecast, it is closely watched by users following Israel, Gaza, World, and Middle East developments.