Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...?

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the ceasefire agreement signed on October 9 will be formally cancelled by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise determined to be no longer in effect by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves "Yes" only if one side announces cancellation or if credible reporting reaches a consensus that the ceasefire has ended; allegations of violations alone are not enough. This makes the forecast highly specific and tied to official statements from the government of Israel or Hamas, with Reuters-style reporting and other credible news sources relevant to resolution. The event matters because any change in the ceasefire’s status would affect the Gaza conflict, regional diplomacy, and broader Middle East market sentiment. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ expectations about whether the ceasefire can hold through the deadline. Current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of cancellation at present, though odds can shift quickly as new developments emerge. The event remains active and is closely watched in Israel, Gaza, and the wider world geopolitical category.