Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will stop governing before December 31, 2026. The forecasted outcome is not a routine political change: it requires a clear break in continuity, such as overthrow, collapse, revolution, civil war, military coup, or another transition that replaces the current system and ends the regime’s de facto authority over most of Iran’s population. Elections, reforms, succession, or internal power shifts that preserve core institutions like the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical authority do not qualify.

This event matters because it tracks market sentiment on a major Middle East and Israel-Iran geopolitical risk, with implications for regional security and global politics. Traders are currently assigning about a 14.5% probability to the regime falling by the deadline, suggesting a low but non-zero expected outcome. The market opened on November 3, 2025 and resolves at the end of 2026, with credible reporting used to determine whether the Islamic Republic has ceased to exercise sovereign power. Tags and search interest around Iran, Khamenei, Reza Pahlavi, Trump, and the broader Iran regime debate reflect the event’s political significance.