Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether China will begin a military offensive intended to establish control over any part of Taiwan, including inhabited islands, before the December 31, 2026 deadline at 11:59 PM ET. The event sits in the Foreign Policy category and focuses on a major risk in China-Taiwan relations, an issue with broad implications for regional security, global trade, and international diplomacy. In this forecast, traders are pricing the odds of a “Yes” outcome at about 6.55%, suggesting market sentiment currently favors no invasion before the cutoff. Resolution depends on official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or a permanent member of the UN Security Council, with credible reporting also able to settle the event. For prediction market participants, this is a high-profile geopolitical forecast tied to event-driven risk, policy signaling, and shifting expectations over time.