Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether any country not already in the Abraham Accords will formally sign a normalization agreement with Israel by December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to Yes only if there is an official, publicly acknowledged agreement that is clearly tied to the Abraham Accords or their continuation; otherwise it resolves to No. Countries already part of the accords, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, do not count. This makes the event a useful barometer of Middle East diplomatic momentum, especially around Israel and broader regional normalization efforts. Market sentiment currently puts the probability at 51.55%, suggesting traders see the outcome as close to even. The event began on November 5, 2025 and runs through the end of 2026, so updates in official government statements or credible reporting could affect odds throughout the forecast period. As a prediction market, it reflects expectations rather than certainty.