KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?

KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), or one of its ruling parties, coalition partners, or executive officials, will formally announce the creation of a new independent state separate from Iraq by December 31, 2026. To resolve "Yes," the market requires a clear public declaration that claims governing authority over a specified territory within Iraq; a credible announcement alone is enough, even if independence is not later recognized or enforced. The forecast centers on the political status of Kurdistan, Iraqi sovereignty, and potential regional spillover involving Kurds, Iraq, and Iran. The current market probability is about 6%, suggesting traders see a low chance of this event prediction occurring before the deadline. As a prediction market, it reflects current market sentiment and odds based on news flow, geopolitical developments, and the likelihood of a formal KRG statement before year-end.