Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is a geopolitics prediction market asking traders to forecast which governments will formally recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. The outcome is based only on official government recognition; an announcement of intent will not count. If government sources are unclear, the market may also use a consensus of credible reporting. This makes the event a focused test of diplomatic developments involving Israel, the Middle East, and countries such as Syria and Yemen that are relevant to the broader regional context. The market is designed to capture event prediction and market sentiment around formal recognition, rather than broader political statements. Current market probability is shown at about 1.05%, suggesting traders see recognition by additional countries as a low-probability outcome, though odds can change as new diplomatic signals emerge. The forecast will resolve at the end of the listed window, making timing central to the event’s resolution and to how prediction market participants assess the expected outcome.