Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?

"Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?" is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Russia will capture any territory of the specified city or settlement by December 31, 2026, based on the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map. The event will resolve to Yes if the relevant area is shown as under Russian control, Russian advance, infiltration, or recent gains on the ISW Ukraine map and that shading persists through the next full daily update cycle. If Russia gains actual control through a negotiated settlement, that also qualifies, but a mere announcement of de jure control does not. The market uses ISW as the primary source, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting as backups if needed. This prediction market focuses on the expected outcome of Russia’s military movement and territorial control in Ukraine, making it relevant to traders tracking market sentiment on the war. As of the latest data, the market implies about a 25% probability of a Yes resolution. The forecast runs from its May 11, 2026 start date through the December 31, 2026 deadline.