US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States and Iran will reach a publicly announced mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if an official deal is announced before the deadline, including a bilateral agreement or a broader multilateral arrangement that includes both countries, and it can also settle on credible reporting if there is overwhelming confirmation. This event matters because any US-Iran nuclear agreement could affect Middle East diplomacy, regional security, and the broader trajectory of Iran-related negotiations. Traders are currently assigning a low probability of about 4.65%, suggesting the market’s expected outcome is that no deal will be announced by the resolution date. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment, odds, and event prediction around a high-stakes geopolitical forecast rather than a certainty.