Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The event resolves to Yes only if Iran clearly states that commercial vessels may transit without Iranian authorization, fees, or other restrictions, or if existing Iran-imposed limits tied to the US-Iran conflict are definitively lifted without replacement. Broad statements about the strait being open, stable, or secure do not qualify.

This forecast matters because the Strait of Hormuz is a critical global shipping route, and any change in Iranian policy could affect regional tensions, U.S. x Iran relations, and broader Middle East market sentiment. Traders in this prediction market are effectively pricing the chance of a public Iranian pledge or agreement before the deadline. As of now, the market implies about a 31% probability of a Yes outcome, suggesting modest but not dominant expectations for unrestricted passage to be formally recognized before the end date. The event is active from May 27, 2026 through June 30, 2026, and resolution will depend on official Iranian statements and credible reporting.