US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?

US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States and Iran will reach an official mutual agreement on Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes if a publicly announced deal is reached before the deadline, including a multilateral agreement such as the JCPOA, as long as both the U.S. and Iran are parties. In practice, this event prediction tracks diplomacy, nuclear nonproliferation talks, and broader Middle East tensions, making it relevant to traders following U.S. x Iran relations and Iran-related political risk. Current market probability is about 52%, suggesting a roughly even forecast and mixed market sentiment rather than a clear consensus. The event begins on May 26, 2026 and runs through the end-of-July deadline, with official announcements or credible reporting serving as the primary resolution basis. For prediction market participants, the key question is whether negotiations produce a formal agreement before time runs out.