Russian strike on Poland by...?

"Russian strike on Poland by...?" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Russia will initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Polish soil, or on any official Polish embassy or consulate, during the stated resolution window beginning September 9, 2025 at 9 PM ET and ending September 30, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. The market resolves to Yes only if a qualifying Russian aerial strike lands on Polish territory or an official Polish diplomatic facility; intercepted missiles or drones do not count, and ground attacks, cyberattacks, artillery fire, or naval shelling are excluded under the rules. This event matters because it tracks escalation risk between Russia and Poland, both key entities in broader European security and the Russia-Ukraine conflict environment. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations and market sentiment on the odds of a direct Russian strike, with the current market probability shown at 0%, indicating traders currently see the outcome as very unlikely. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting, making accurate and timely news coverage central to the final event prediction.