Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Pete Hegseth will cease to serve as U.S. Secretary of Defense at any point between market creation and May 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if a resignation, removal, or official announcement of departure occurs before the end date, even if the exit takes effect later. That makes the event a direct forecast of cabinet stability inside the Trump administration, with implications for U.S. politics and the broader Iran-related geopolitical category. The resolution source is official information from Hegseth and the U.S. government, though credible reporting may also be considered. As of the latest update, the market-implied probability is about 5%, suggesting traders currently see the expected outcome as unlikely. This prediction market is therefore centered on odds, market sentiment, and whether any confirmed change in leadership at the Department of Defense happens before the May 31 deadline.