Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether a major global disruption will occur before December 31, 2026. The event resolves to “No” if any listed trigger happens between market creation and the deadline, including Trump leaving office, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping being out, a U.S. invasion of Iran, regime collapse in Iran, Russia invading a NATO country, Trump acquiring Greenland, or extreme events such as a 9.0+ earthquake, a VEI 6 or larger volcanic eruption, or a major meteor strike. It also includes several other specific tail-risk outcomes, such as Bitcoin reaching 1 million or falling to 10,000, Jeffrey Epstein being alive, or a Republican trifecta with a Senate supermajority. Otherwise, the market resolves to “Yes.” As of the latest data, traders assign about a 69.5% probability to the “Yes” outcome, suggesting market sentiment leans toward no qualifying event occurring by year-end. This makes it a broad event prediction on geopolitical stability, tail risks, and high-impact world events.