Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...?

Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by...? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Naim Qassem will cease to be Hezbollah’s secretary-general by the specified deadline, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast is straightforward: traders are pricing the probability that Qassem resigns, is detained, is removed, or otherwise loses the ability to serve in that role within the market’s timeframe. The event sits at the intersection of Middle East politics, Lebanon, and Israel-related regional developments, making it a closely watched geopolitical forecast. Official Hezbollah statements are the primary resolution source, with credible reporting also used to determine the outcome. As of the latest data, the market probability is 0%, suggesting no yes-side expectation at present, though prediction market odds can change as news develops. The market opens on 2025-11-24 and runs through 2026-03-31, giving participants a defined window to assess shifting market sentiment around Hezbollah leadership and regional stability.