Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...?

Mohammed bin Salman out as leader of Saudi Arabia by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will cease to be the leader of Saudi Arabia at any point between market creation and the specified end date. The market resolves to Yes if he resigns, is removed, detained, or otherwise permanently prevented from carrying out the duties of his position within the timeframe, based on official Saudi and Mohammed bin Salman statements or credible reporting. If an announcement of resignation or removal is made before the deadline, the market can resolve immediately even if the change takes effect later. This event prediction matters because bin Salman is central to Saudi Arabia’s political direction, regional security posture, ties with Iran, and energy policy, including OPEC-related decisions. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations and broader market sentiment around leadership continuity in Saudi Arabia. Current market probability is about 1.1%, suggesting traders see a low chance of this outcome before the December 31, 2026 deadline. The forecast is therefore for continuity rather than a near-term leadership change.