Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...?

Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Hezbollah will reach a permanent peace agreement by the deadline of 11:59 PM ET on May 31, 2026. The forecast focuses on a lasting end to military hostilities, not a temporary ceasefire extension or other short-term arrangement. To resolve “Yes,” the market requires either a written agreement formally adopted by both sides or clear public confirmation that a qualifying permanent deal has been definitively reached. In a broader regional context, the event also reflects ongoing risk around Lebanon, Israel, and Iran-linked tensions. Market sentiment is currently extremely bearish on a lasting agreement, with the listed probability at 0%, suggesting traders see no expected outcome of a permanent peace deal before expiry. As a prediction market, the event tracks odds and trader expectations around whether diplomacy can produce an explicit, durable settlement rather than another temporary pause in hostilities.