Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

"Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?" is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel will announce that all of its ground forces have withdrawn from Lebanese territory by the market deadline. The event resolves to Yes only if Israel makes that announcement by 11:59 PM ET on June 30, 2026; a promise of a future withdrawal is not enough. For resolution purposes, Shebaa Farms is treated as Israeli territory, and the primary source is the Israeli government, though overwhelming credible reporting could also determine the outcome. This geopolitical forecast sits at the intersection of Israel, Lebanon, Iran ceasefire dynamics, and broader Israel x Iran market sentiment. Traders are effectively pricing the odds of a completed withdrawal rather than a diplomatic statement or partial pullback. The current market probability is 0%, indicating no priced expectation of a Yes outcome at the time of the latest update, although prediction market sentiment can change quickly as news develops. For observers following geopolitical event prediction and regional security developments, this market reflects whether a concrete Israeli withdrawal announcement will occur before the deadline.