Iran coup attempt by June 30?

Iran coup attempt by June 30? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether there will be a widely reported coup attempt in Iran before the June 30, 2026 deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes only if credible independent sources broadly report a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. General unrest, protests, or unverified claims of a foiled plot do not qualify unless the event is explicitly characterized as a coup attempt in consensus reporting. This makes the market a focused test of geopolitical risk around Iran, the Iranian regime, and broader Middle East stability, with possible implications for Israel, U.S. policy, and regional power dynamics. Traders are currently assigning about a 6.5% probability to the Yes outcome, indicating low but nonzero market expectations. As a prediction market event, it reflects sentiment on whether such a major political rupture will emerge during the active period running from January 6 to June 30, 2026.