Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?

Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether Iran will publicly agree to allow unrestricted commercial navigation through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast centers on a clear pledge that commercial vessels may transit the strait without Iranian authorization, fees, or other Iran-imposed restrictions. General claims that the strait is “open” or that tensions are easing do not qualify under the market rules.

This event matters because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, and any change in Iran’s policy could affect regional security, U.S.-Iran relations, and commercial trade flows. The market resolves to Yes if Iran makes a qualifying public agreement before the deadline, whether unilaterally or as part of a broader deal with the U.S. or Israel.

Current market probability is about 4%, suggesting traders see a low expected outcome for a qualifying agreement before expiration. Resolution will rely on official Iranian statements and credible reporting.