Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market that asks whether Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will cease to be President of the Republic of Türkiye at any point between market creation and the end date on December 31, 2026. The forecast resolves to “Yes” if Erdoğan resigns, is removed from office, is detained, or is otherwise permanently prevented from performing the duties of the presidency within that timeframe. It resolves to “No” if he remains in office through the deadline.

This event matters because it tracks political stability in Türkiye and broader market sentiment around one of the country’s most consequential leaders. Prediction market traders are effectively pricing the odds of an unexpected leadership change, using official statements from Erdoğan and the Turkish government, with credible reporting also relevant to resolution. As of the latest update, the market probability for a “Yes” outcome is about 8.5%, suggesting traders expect Erdoğan to remain president through the end of 2026, though that forecast can change as new political developments emerge.