Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May?

Avg. # of ships transiting Strait of Hormuz end of May? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on the 7-day moving average of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz for May 31, 2026, using IMF Portwatch data. The market forecast is not about a single ship crossing, but about the average level of traffic reported for container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. That makes the event relevant to traders watching Iran, U.S.-Iran tensions, Hormuz shipping traffic, and broader oil-linked maritime risk. The market will resolve when IMF Portwatch publishes the first qualifying May 31 data, with a fallback to the most recent prior date if no data is available by June 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If the reported figure falls exactly between two brackets, the higher range resolves the market. Current market probability is around 7%, indicating a low expected outcome and cautious market sentiment. As a prediction market, it reflects trader expectations about end-of-month shipping activity in one of the world’s most strategically important chokepoints.