Will US withdraw from NATO by...?

Will US withdraw from NATO by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the United States will formally begin withdrawing from NATO or submit an official notice of denunciation under Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to “Yes” only if the U.S. government takes one of those official steps; simply leaving NATO’s integrated military command would not be enough. Because the resolution depends on formal government and NATO sources, the event focuses on clear, verifiable policy action rather than broader speculation about foreign policy rhetoric. Traders are using this geopolitical forecast to assess the odds of a major shift in U.S. alliance strategy, with implications for NATO, Europe, Ukraine, Greenland-related tensions, and the wider world order. Current market probability is about 8.3%, indicating market sentiment leans strongly toward “No” at present, though prediction market odds can change quickly as political developments unfold. The event began on November 5, 2025 and remains active through the end-of-year 2026 deadline, making it a closely watched event prediction in the politics category.