Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...?

Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the United States will formally declare war on Venezuela through an act of Congress. The forecast is narrowly defined: only a formal declaration of war passed by Congress under Article I, Section 8 and signed into law will resolve the market to Yes. AUMFs, executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions alone do not count. The event matters because it tracks the risk of direct US-Venezuela conflict and the role of Congress in any escalation. This event opened on December 15, 2025 and remains relevant through the resolution window ending December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET, with the market itself listed as active through June 30, 2026 for resolution purposes. Current market probability is about 1.5%, suggesting traders see a formal declaration of war as highly unlikely. As a prediction market, it reflects market sentiment and event prediction around US politics, Trump-era foreign policy, and Venezuela-related geopolitical risk.