Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...?

Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russia will take full control of Prymorske, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, by the market’s resolution deadline. The forecast resolves to Yes if the entire municipality is shown in red on the ISW Ukraine map, with qualifying control required to persist through the next full daily update cycle. If Russia gains control through a negotiated settlement that gives it actual control, that also counts for a Yes outcome. The market does not count temporary map glitches, and partial shading or infiltration areas alone are not enough.

This event matters because it tracks a specific battlefield control outcome in the Russia-Ukraine war, using the ISW map or, if needed, DeepStateMap and credible reporting as backup sources. The prediction market is active, and traders are currently assigning 0% probability to a Yes outcome, indicating very weak market sentiment for a near-term capture. The event runs from its December 2025 start date through the April 30, 2026 end date, with final resolution tied to the January 15, 2026 cutoff in the market rules.