Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...?

Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by...? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether Israel and Hamas will reach an official agreement on the second phase of their ceasefire by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The forecast focuses on whether the initial Phase 1 truce announced on October 8 will be followed by a publicly acknowledged Phase 2 deal, not merely an extension of the existing arrangement. According to the market rules, a qualifying outcome would need to be announced by both sides, either directly or through recognized mediators such as the U.S., Egypt, or Qatar.

The expected outcome matters because Phase 2 would address unresolved issues including further Israeli withdrawal, Hamas’s disarmament, and broader security and governance arrangements in Gaza. That makes this market relevant to traders tracking Israel, Gaza, the Middle East, Trump, and Trump-Netanyahu diplomacy. As a prediction market event, it reflects current market sentiment on the likelihood of a negotiated follow-on agreement rather than a renewed or prolonged pause in fighting. No probability is available here, so the odds are not quantified in the listing.