Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?

Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? is a geopolitics prediction market on whether the United Arab Emirates will officially announce or formally communicate a decision to withdraw from the GCC before the market’s deadline of 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time on December 31, 2026. The event focuses on a clear government action or equivalent authorized statement from the UAE, not rumors, unnamed-source reports, or informal comments. That distinction matters because the outcome depends on verified official communication, with credible reporting used only as a secondary resolution source if needed. In prediction market terms, traders are forecasting the expected outcome of UAE-GCC relations over the year, using current market sentiment to price the odds of a withdrawal. The market currently assigns about an 11% probability to a Yes resolution, suggesting most participants expect the UAE to remain in the Gulf Cooperation Council through 2026. As a Middle East and oil-related geopolitical forecast, the event may draw attention from analysts tracking regional diplomacy, bloc cohesion, and broader Gulf political developments.