Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? is a geopolitics prediction market asking whether the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling system will lose governing power before May 31, 2026. The forecast is not about routine elections, reforms, or leadership succession; it resolves to "Yes" only if the core institutions of the regime — including the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, and IRGC-linked clerical authority — are dissolved, replaced, or otherwise cease to govern the majority of Iran’s population. That means the event is focused on a true break in continuity, such as revolution, civil war, a military coup, or a new provisional authority taking over.

For traders watching Middle East and U.S. x Iran tensions, the market provides a live read on sentiment around regime stability, opposition movements, and potential geopolitical escalation involving Iran, Israel, and figures such as Khamenei and Reza Pahlavi. The current market probability is about 5%, suggesting traders see a regime سقوط by the deadline as unlikely, though not impossible. The event ends on May 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, and resolution will depend on consensus reporting about whether the Islamic Republic still exercises sovereign power.