Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?

Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russia will capture any territory in Havrylivka, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map. The market resolves to Yes if Russian control is shown on the ISW Ukraine map, or on DeepStateMap if ISW is unavailable, at any point between market creation and the resolution deadline, with qualifying shading required to persist through the next full daily update cycle. The forecast matters because it tracks the front line in Ukraine and how market sentiment is pricing the chance of further Russian advances in a specific settlement. Traders are effectively assigning odds to an event prediction tied to battlefield control rather than announced plans or claims alone. The current market probability is 0%, suggesting the crowd sees the expected outcome as unlikely at this stage, though that can change as new reporting or map updates emerge. The market’s timing is defined by a February 28, 2026 cutoff at 11:59 PM ET, making it a time-bound geopolitical forecast with clear resolution criteria.