Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Russian forces will capture the specified intersection in Havrylivka, Ukraine, by the resolution deadline at 11:59 PM ET on February 28. The market resolves using the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map, with DeepStateMap or credible reporting used only if the primary sources are unavailable. To count as a “Yes,” the intersection must be shaded red on the ISW map in a way that indicates Russian control and persists through the next full update cycle; a negotiated settlement that establishes actual Russian control would also qualify. Temporary map glitches do not count, and the intersection location is defined precisely in the market rules.

This event matters because it tracks battlefield developments in the Ukraine war and the market sentiment around territorial control in a specific location. As a prediction market, it reflects traders’ event prediction and odds rather than a certainty. The current probability is 0%, suggesting the market is not pricing in a Russian capture before the deadline. Tags such as Ukraine, Geopolitics, Politics, and Ukraine Map reinforce the event’s focus on military and territorial forecasting.