Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether the Islamic Republic of Iran will formally notify the United Nations that it is leaving the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty under Article X before the market resolves at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. The event hinges on an official written notice from the Iranian government that clearly states its intention to withdraw, with resolution determined by a consensus of credible reporting. As a nuclear and Middle East issue, the market matters because an NPT withdrawal would be a major signal in global nonproliferation policy and broader Iran-related diplomacy. Current market probability is about 7.05%, suggesting traders assign a low but non-zero chance to the expected outcome. The forecast captures market sentiment around geopolitical risk, nuclear escalation, and the likelihood of a formal treaty exit rather than informal rhetoric or threats.