Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?

Will Hamas agree to disarm by...? is a geopolitics prediction market focused on whether Hamas will formally announce a disarmament commitment in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The forecasted outcome is specific: the market resolves to Yes only if there is an official announcement from Hamas leadership, or a widely credible consensus that Hamas has instituted a policy of disarmament. The definition includes a public pledge to relinquish or dismantle military capabilities, whether in full or as part of a partial or staged process, so long as it is an acknowledged disarmament agreement.

This Gaza and Israel-related event matters because any credible move toward disarmament would be a significant development in the broader foreign policy and conflict landscape. Traders are watching for official statements, not informal remarks or conditional intentions, making resolution dependent on clear political action rather than speculation. As of the latest market data, the displayed probability is 0%, though that should be read as current market sentiment rather than a guarantee. The event is active through its end date, giving the prediction market a defined window for new developments and revised odds.